18 May 2005

The Alberta Oil Sands Paradigm

There are over a trillion barrels of oil in the great Alberta oil sands of
Canada. Of this about 150-175 billion barrels are recoverable by current
processing techniques and geographical location with a like number possible
with future surveys. The world uses 80-85 million barrels of oil a day or 30
billion barrels a year. Projecting linear traditional world GDP growth the
world will be consuming 115-120 million barrels a day by the year 2020 or
40-45 billion barrels yearly.

In 2010 after massive further investment daily production from the Alberta
field will increase to 2 million barrels daily or only about 2.3 percent of
the worldıs daily oil needs.

While there is enough oil in the world to last another fifty years, the oil
sands of Alberta characterizes the problem with the worldıs oil ­ much of it
is non-recoverable and there are limits to its rate of extraction. When the
worldıs growing daily demand is not met because of the growing constraints
of the rate of extraction, the cost of oil will soar.

 G. Lammert