|
5 May 2005
A Perpetual GDP Growth Anomaly
The past 50 or so years in the US have been a great anomaly As compared to
the periodic and - roughly equal - growth and decay economic cycles of the
150 years that preceded it.
The following is a very busy listing, but the visual impact of the equal
volume of annual declining and growth trends in the GDP preceding 1941may
provide more than can be provided in grammatical text.
Year
Nominal GDP
(Billions of dollars)
From1789 to 1941
Declining GDP or recovery to only previous multiyear high
1797 $.4501798 $.4601802 $.5401803 $.5601806 $.690
1807 $.7001808 $.660 1811 $.8101816 $1.151817 $1.15
1818 $1.141819 $1.001820 $.8601821 $.8201822 $.910
1823 $.8901824 $.9201825 $1.04 1826$ $.9901827 $1.01
1828 $1.051829 $1.081830 $1.091837 $1.801838 $1.82
1840 $1.731841 $1.761842 $1.641843 $1.611844 $1.73
1845 $1.891848 $2.131849 $2.251858 $4.071859 $4.40
1865 $9.141866 $8.881867 $8.511868 $8.491869 $8.28
1870 $8.491871 $8.771872 $8.901873 $9.271874 $8.95
1875 $9.021876 $8.781877 $8.911878 $8.711883 $12.33
1884 $12.011885 $11.801886 $12.151890 $13.561894 $13.321
1896 $14.371908 $26.791910 $31.301909 $29.941911 $32.24
1912 $34.921913 $36.631921 $72.931922 $72.431923 $84.91
1927 $95.601928 $96.521930 $91.201931 $76.501932 $58.70
1933 $56.401934 $66.001935 73.301936 $83.801937 $91.90
1938 $86.101939 $92.201940 $101.40
From 1789 to 1941
Increasing GDP over previous multiyear high
1789 $.210 1790 $.2401791 $.2501792 $.2701793 $.300
1795 $.4201796 $.4701799 $.5001800 $.5201801 $.580
1804 $.6201805 $.7001809 $.7501810 $.810
1812 $.8301813 $.9701814 $1.121815 $1.15
1831 $1.161832 $1.241833 $1.341834 $1.361835 $1.60
1836 $1.841839 $1.951846 $2.011847 $2.31
1850 $2.541851 $2.611852 $2.761853 $3.151854 $3.50
1855 $3.871856 $4.081857 $4.47 1860 $4.491861 $4.59
1862 $5.241863 $6.561864 $9.27 1879 $9.491880 $11.141881 $11.48
1882 $12.451887 $12.711888 $12.861889 $13.69
1891 $13.991892 $14.471893 $14.511895 $14.66
1897 $15.311898 $15.871899 $17.971900 $18.681901 $21.06
1902 $21.731903 $22.921904 $24.001905 $26.191906 $28.16
1907 $28.951914 $34.311915 $36.301916 $45.891917 $54.85
1918 $69.351919 $76.631920 $86.761924 $87.291925 $90.75
1926 $96.771929 $103.60
Compare that with the two years of declining GDP in the last 53 years
From 1941 to 2004
Declining GDP or recovery to only previous multiyear high
1946 $222.30 1949 $267.30
From 1941 to 2004
Increasing GDP over previous multiyear high
1941 $126.701942 $161.901943 $198.601944 $219.80
1945 $223.101947 $244.201948 $269.201950 $293.801951 $339.30
1952 $358.301953 $379.401954 $380.401955 $414.801956 $437.50
1957 $461.101958 $467.201959 $506.601960 $526.401961 $544.70
1962 $585.601963 $617.701964 $663.601964 $663.601965 $719.10
1966 $787.801967 $832.601968 $910.001969 $984.601970 $1,038
1971 $1,1271972 $1,2381973 $1,3821974 $1,5001975 $1,6381976 $1,825
1977 $2,0301978 $2,2941979 $2,5631980 $2,7891981 $3,1281982 $3,255
1983 $3,5361984 $3,9331985 $4,2201986 $4,4621987 $4,7391988 $5,103
1989 $5,4841990 $5,8031991 $5,9951992 $6,3371993 $6,6571994 $7,072
1995 $7,3971996 $7,8161997 $8,3041998 $8,7471999 $9,2682000 $9,817
2001 $10,1002002 $10,4802003 $10,980
It is noteworthy that the Federal Reserve System was established in 1914; it
was well functioning during the thirties when the GDP contracted by over 45
percent.
Since 1941 there are 50 years of debt driven imbalances that have been
papered over by debt expansion either by federal government deficit spending
or consumer deficit spending fueled by easy credit and low interest rates.
It is this macroeconomic background that provides the elevation for a 140
year second cycle nonlinear fall.
G. Lammert
|