26 August 06
26 August 2006 Epilogue to the 11 June posting
One of the simple mathematical laws of saturation quantum fractal
macroeconomics is that the first decay fractal base is found in the
last or primary apical growth fractal.
Containing the Wilshire's third fractal week 75 of a 30/75/75 week
fractal starting in 2002 and containing the third fractal 24th day of
the12/30/24 daily fractal starting in October 2005 and containing the
third fractal day 62 of a non dominant 31/77/62 day fractal starting
from a nodal low in May 2005 - containing the apogee highs of all
three of these fractal sequences was a rising decay fractal series
with a base of 28-30 days defined by beginning and ending nodal lows.
The 28 day base fractal sequence represents the ideal nodal low to low:
In this ideal sequence the daily fractal count is 28/70/68 of 70
For the 29 day base:
29/72/66 of 72
For the 30 day base:
30/75/63 of 75
From the lows of the second fractals(70/72/75 days), the averaged curvilinear
decay growth fractal is a
11/28/currently 29 day fractal with day's 29 valuation below 2x day 22
and blow the maximum ideal 28 (2.5x) extension of the 11 day base.
The current and final growth fractal for the Wilshire from its July
2006 lows is:
6/15/12 of 12-15.
The last 5 equity trading days have been anemic with low distribution
volume and sellers of equities buying long term US debt instruments
driving interest rates of the ten year bond further below the three
month treasuries and within the last 2-3 trading days inverting the
thirty year bond below the three month debt instrument for first time
in several years.
Is it herd psychology that causes asset devolution or is it the
mechanistic debt burden-overownership-overprodu
ction saturation of
the global macroeconomy? While ultimately even psychology is grounded
in causal neural networks of firing and positive and negative feedback
very mechanistic neurons within the brain, the mechanistic laws of the
macroeconomy are separate from the mechanistic human mind that reacts
to the conditions of a contracting money supply. It is the money
supply that supports all asset valuations.
Is it psychology that stops a world record hot dog eater from
consuming the 70th dog in an hour or the constraints of his or her
stomach size? The stomach size of the macroeconomy has its qualitative
and, via the hypothesis of this alcove site, its fractal quantitative
limits with respect to debt load, overproduction, over ownership, and
ongoing wages. This stomach size is why all bubbles end. The global
macroeconomy has ordered and produced more than its stomach (and
wallet) can handle. Time is needed to purge the system and slowly
consume the extra overproduced hot dogs (and the correlative rapidly
escalating supply of houses) remaining on the table.
At what point does the combination of a decreased rate of borrowing
and the increasing bankruptcy rate implode the the financial system?
How many performing loans must offset a nonperforming loan to ensure
that collective lenders receive a continuous positive monthly return
on their investment loans?
Secondary to the Wilshire's 5 May 2006 closing high, the lower high of
the terminal x/2.5x/2.5x extension: 28-30/70-75/63-68 of 70-75 day
fractal is at or near completion.
A historical and great devolution and unraveling is in the anteroom.