13 May 06 Postscript
to May 6 Nonlinear Posting
The Coming Great Nonlinear End and the 1937 (non)Correlate ...
The US second grand fractal which began in 1858 had a previous
base of approximately of 70 years. The aging second fractal is composed
of two generational subcycles:1858 -1932 ... 74 years... and 1932 to possibly
2006 ... possibly an identical 74 year old twin. In the last five
days of predicted recent nonlinear valuation decay activity ... the
greatest of the formerly
great late1990's I.T. new paradigm proxies: the NASDAQ 100, has given
up over 6 months of valuations. A tell tale lower low gap is seen
last two trading days for NDX.
On the other hand ,GM serves to represent the true conundrum of 2006.
It's valuation fractals are behaving in a perfectly misleading, lulling,
comforting and contrary fashion having climbed during all of the recent carnage
in a scoffing 4.5/12-13/10 of 10-13 maximum growth fractal evolution.
It is the upscale caricature of its slightly less well performing 29
composite DJ sister equities. The recent valuations of GM provide the
appropriate obfuscation at this probable historical nonlinear turning
point. Its recent daily fractal growth is
in perfect X/2.5X/2X form. Because GM is growing, there is a sense of
stability ... a sense of reassuring continuity... a sense of
linearity. If the valuations of America's bankrupt former smokestack
powerhouse is behaving OK, maybe its
macrocosm correlate, America is doing OK.
A broken clock is exactly correct twice a day. This alcove for
saturation macroeconomics has observed equity, debt market, and
commodity valuation fractal evolution in the context of recurrently
attempting to identify and prognosticate the exact timing for the US's
second 140 year plus fractal nonlinear end. A predicted end now might be
perceived in the context of a broken clock's repetitive readings with its
constant minute and hour hand's positions. However, there is ample evidence
that this search has been guided by lower time order fractals that have
occurring since 2003 in a x/2.5x/2.5x fashion. These recurrent lower
time order fractal patterns suggest a probable maximal x/2.5x/2.5x
fractal extension series for the final secondary lower growth phase
to the US summation Wilshire's March 2000 high. Was 6 May 2006 the
secondary ending high for the
Wilshire for this 148 year old fractal? History will soon judge. The
Monday European markets will provide some advance short term direction
to this query.
The devolution, from an internally consistent fractal perspective,
could now be underway. Nevertheless, when it does occur- it will not
be a 1937 decay equivalent. The debtor of last resort
after the 29 crash was the US government. After the 2000 slow motion
crash of the IT bubble, the US Federal Reserve, the lending industries
and corporations have placed the US citizen in the primary role of
debtor of last resort. Enticed and entrapped American consumers have
saturated themselves with debt and overpriced and overproduced assets.
As this second subcycle generational saturation area unravels, asset
valuation decay will be sudden, unprecedented, and unequalled in
March 2000 was not Sept-October 1929. But perhaps May 2006 is April 1932.
The borrowers of last resort: the American consumer and the tax
refunding and war borrowing US government are unknowingly near
exhaustion. The American president with low unemployment, continued
tax rebates, and recent hefty tax revenues is perhaps as unsuspecting
of the deterministic fractal valuation events soon to unfold as is his
increasingly dissatisfied public. Mr.Hoover with his ample treasury
had a relatively enviable position.
The diminishing x/2.5/2.5x maximal growth sequences: wherein each
successive base is found in the terminal growth fractals of the
preceding sequence is as follows:
.4 day/1 day/1 day
As well: using two possible daily base sequences incorporating the
peak of the 75 th week 3rd fractal; a maximal 26/65 daily :: x/2.5x
sequence or alternatively a 30/60 day :: x/2x sequence can be defined.
It would be fractally appropriate for the second grand fractal of 140
plus years to break down .... at the end of an apical .... second
daily fractal sequence.