8 March 06

A Rare Ironclad Prediction Using Fractal Analysis

An ironclad ... ironclad.. short term prediction about the
near term directional behavior of US equities... can be made ... using
the principles of fractal growth and decay analysis. Readers and the
scientific community can realize the power and simplicity of fractal
analysis as a predictive tool.

Is the macro economy at the brink of collapse? Most linearly thinking
economists do not believe so. The renown Economist Irving Fisher made
his linear prediction of continued growth a month or so before the
1929  primary decay.

The signs of early macroeconomic decay were present in the summer of 1929
with falling auto sales and falling exports. The debt burden and
forward consumption on credit of American workers at the end of the
Roaring twenties weighed against continued growth.

March 2006 parallels the macroeconomic conditions of 1929. The
unchanged linear thought processes of current renown economists are
following the same 77 year old echoes of their predecessors. The
nonlinearity characterized by fractal progression remains in the
darkness of the ante room, just out of sight.

The parallels are there. The current US economy is maintained on a
termite infested wooden foundation of gargantuan debt. The listed
ongoing valuation of assets are only as good as the continuation of
the promised IOU's of a new service worker class, whose jobs are as
tenuous as the economy they exist in. Anyone who can not conceive of a
coupled feedback unraveling of jobs and asset valuations, would do
well to study the devolution process in the early 1930's.

Is the global economy at that critical point? While no one really
knows and time will tell its story, long term fractal analysis
suggests that to be the case. Nevertheless.. in the short term... an
ironclad prediction can be made for the next two trading weeks, using

the principles of fractal analysis.

An exquisite evolving and interlocking fractal series and sub series
has two interlocking second fractal growth series ending within two
days of each other.  Second growth fractals, as you know and have
witnessed repetitively, end with nonlinear gap drops to lower

While this fractal pattern can be seen in the Wilshire, the NYSE which
makes its trading debut today, as a trading index, illustrates the
perfect pattern. This is well worth the time to go to BIG CHART's and
do the daily count....

The first fractal series begins 20 October 2005 and ends on 30
November/1 December 2005

 First fractal = X = 6/15/10-11 days  y/2.5y/1.6y/ or for a base of 29-30

The expected end for the second growth fractal is 2.5x or 73-75 days with
A nonlinear drop between day 59-60 to day 75.

Notice day 30 and day 60 , X and 2X, of the potential 75 day second
fractal sequence are exact highs.

The first sub fractal of the second fractal starts on 30 November 2005
and is a x/2.5x/2.5x rolling fractal 4/10/10 with a base length of 22
days ending on 30 December 2005.

The expected end of its Second sub fractal growth period is
 2.5 x 22 = day 55 with a nonlinear drop between day 44 and 55.
Notice that 22 + 55 = 76 (Subtract one day for double counting)

Also note that day 22 and day 43, x and 2x, represents the highs of
the 22 day base sub fractal's second growth fractal.

The end of both fractal series end within two days of each other, and
both has an expected nonlinear drop.

The first fractal series count is 30/67 of 75 for 8 more trading days
and the second sub cycle series making up the second fractal of larger
series is:
22/46 of 55 for 9 more days.

An fractal ironclad prediction can be made for a nonlinear drop, with
an opening trading day gap lower the previous day's close which will
occur within the next 8-9 trading days.  A subsequent failure to close
this gap would provide technical confirmation that the great
devolution of debt and asset implosion has commenced consistent with
the recurrent theme of maximal  X/2.5X/2.5X  fractal growth
progression seen in March 2000 technical Right Shoulder.
Gary Lammert