to the small alcove for the advancement of cause and effect saturation
macroeconomics. This site pursues the hypothesis that the nature of market
valuations and economic cycles is both causal and quantitatively decipherable.
Valuations confirm to fractal cyclical patterns that can be recognized,
interpreted in conjunction with data emanating from the macroeconomic system,
and used with short term and long-term predicative power. Information from this
site is not intended to be construed as investment advice or as an investment
tool. This site has been constructed because of the expected inevitability of a
major sudden phase transition to occur at the conclusion of a grand 140
plus-year second fractal cycle starting in 1858. For the masses this phase
transition will occur both very unexpectedly and very suddenly. Approaching the
global macro economy from such a causal and fractal Weltanschauung may help
those considering further debt obligation and those in position of formulating
future interest rate and monetary policy.
cyclical nature of the macroeconomic system operates by causality rather than
chance. Valuations of assets are controlled chiefly by interest rates - the cost
of money. Lowering nominal interest rates, below asset inflation controlling
rates, leads to macro economical disequilibria with excessive money expansion
through increased borrowing. This expansion engenders unbalanced forward
consumption, consumer saturation, overproduction, and inflation of assets and
consumer items. With the addition of ongoing wages of the consumer masses, these
oppositional elements are countervailing, and periodic macroeconomic imbalances
will self correct.
overvaluation saturation and decay corrections to new lower saturation points
occur in a fractal manner. Cyclical patterns can readily be identified on
valuation charts denominated in minutely, hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, and
yearly units. The transitional asymptote of overvaluation saturation curves are
followed by decay curves which bring market valuations to lowered levels where
intelligent buyers reenter the market.
psychology is a decidedly lagging indicator and follows as an end effect of the
mechanistic saturation and decay evolutions in the market. Market contrarians
understand these turning points and anticipate the directional changes of the
markets based both on market asymptotic overvaluation saturation areas or decay
end-point saturation characteristics and counter intuitively by recognizing the
lagging psychological parameters of extreme optimism or pessimism in reaction to
the mechanistic respective high and low points.
the degree of valuation and the cyclical time course of valuation evolutions
appear to conform to range bound near quantum-like units and quantum related
Fibonacci numbers. While the absolute degree of valuation is influenced by the
absolute interest rate, the percentage or proportionality changes of valuations
from highs to lows and lengths of time to decay and intra-cycle nodal points
appear to conform to these range bound near quantum units.
This page was last updated on 15-May-2005 01:21:59 PM .