The current Fractal Model for the US SPX is a 3-Phase terminal Peak Growth and Crash Decay Model which reaches its nadir on Monday 2 November 2026, the day before the US congressional midterms. Fractally it is exactly, to a day, following the 1929 11/26/27 day :: xy/2.5xy/2.5xy peak valuation and inital crash fractal decay series which ended on 13 Nov 1929.
A 2 November 2026 Crash Nadir, a day before the midterms: Woowee … God doth have a sense of humor…
In the above 1929 SPX daily fractal graph, the fractal time unit ‘xy’ is used to denote terminal fractal peak valuation growth and initial crash decay. The last 3 days of the 7 day 3rd fractal of a pre-terminal 3/8/7 day :: x/2.5x/2-2.5x 3-phase fractal growth series is shared (conjoined) with the first 11 days of a 11/26/27 day :: xy/2.5xy/2.5xy 3-phase fractal series in which 3 Sept 1929 is contained in the 26 day 2nd fractal and day 27 of the 27 day 3rd fractal is the nadir 13 Nov 1929 crash low.
In the above 2026 daily fractal graph, the fractal ‘xy’ notation is again used to denote terminal fractal peak valuation growth and initial crash fractal decay. The last 3 days of the 4th fractal of a pre-terminal 29 July 2026 2/4/4/3 day 4-phase fractal series is shared (conjoined) with following 8 days of a 2/5/3 day fractal series to form a 10+/11 day 1st fractal (day 1 of the 10 day series is upgoing and double counted.) A 10+/26/27 day :: xy/2.5xy/2.5xy 3-phase fractal series in which 13-14 August 2026, the SPX all-time peak valuation, is contained in the 10+/11 day 1st fractal and day 27 of the 27 day 3rd fractal is the crash nadir occurring on Monday 2 November 2026.
Below Added 1055 EST 18 Sept 2026:
The comparison weekly 1928 and weekly 2025 fractal charts are shown below.
From the 20 Feb 1928 nadir to the 13 Nov 1929 initial crash nadir the DJIA and SPX self-assembled in a 26/66 week :: x/2-2.5x 1st and second fractal series part of a 3 phase x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x :: 26/66/58 week 3-phase fractal series. Three weekly fractal series make up the 66 week 2nd fractal: a 4-phase 3/7/7/3 or 18 week series, a 5/12/10 week or 25 week series ending 27 May 1929 and a 27 May 1929 3 phase 25 week, 5/12/11 week fractal series with 2 weeks of the 2nd 12 week fractal shared with the 3rd 11 week fractal. The 12 week 2nd fractal is composed of of a 2/5/5/3 week series and the terminal 11 weeks series is composed of a 2/4/5/3 week series.
On a weekly basis, the 2026 SPX fractal series is following a terminal 17/35/32 week :: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x’ fractal series with a peak valuation on week 20-21 or 1.5x’ of the terminal 32 week 3rd fractal and ending with a initial crash low on week 32 or 2 November 2026.
A Fractal Primer on the two laws of Asset-Debt Saturation Macroeconomics, Fractal Series, and Elemental Fractals
1st Law/Pattern: a 3-phase time-based fractal series: x/2-2.5x/1.5-2.5x growth and decay
2nd Law/Pattern: a 4-phase time-based fractal series: x/2-2.5x/2-2.5x/1.5-1.6x growth and decay
Each element of the above two series is termed ‘1st’, ‘2nd’, and ‘3rd’ Fractal and ‘1st’, ‘2nd’, ‘3rd’,and ‘4th’ Fractal, respectively
Fractal groupings are generally determined by straight or curvilinear underlying slope terndlines
The 2nd 2.5x Fractal of the 3-phase and 4-phase fractal series determines the ideal “x'” 1st fractal whose ideal time length equals the time duration of the 2nd Fractal divided by 2.5; this ideal length “x'” then determines the expected length of the 3rd and 4th Fractals
The Asset Valuation Self-Assembly Process and the Grand US Hegemonic 1802 Fractal Series Cycle:
Equity and commodity price cycles are deterministic and self-assembled in regular time-unit based simple mathematical above fractal patterns representing the macroeconomic asset-debt system’s most efficient manner of trading valuation growth during times of ongoing government deficit spending and during times of excessive private debt investment, the latter resulting in overproduction and over valuation of asset to a retrospectively recognizable peak asset valuation – and thereafter asset valuation decay occurs with ongoing debt default and unpayable debt reorganization. Targeted eras of excess private credit and overvalued assets are 1630’s tulips; 1720 south sea certificates; mid-1840’s Britain and early 1870’s US railway stocks; 1929 equities with 10% margin buying; and equities associated with the 2000 internet innovation mania, US 1830’s and 2000-2007 real estate manias, and the 2025-2026 AI/data center manias. For the US, the great fractal cyclical time-unit framework is a 1807 36/90/90/54-57 year :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5-1.6x 4-phase fractal cycle ending in 2074-2077. The 1807 36 year 1st Fractal ended in 1842-3 and the 90 year 2nd Fractal in 1932. The 90 year 3rd Fractal and the 54-57 year 4th Fractal of the 1807 36/90/90/54-57 year fractal series are composed of 2 sequential fractal series: a 51 year 1932 10-11/21/21 year :: x/2x/2x series ending in 1982 and a 1982 96-97 year 13/33-34/33/20 years :: x/2.5x/2.5x/1.5x fractal series ending in about 2077. The 90 year 3rd fractal peak valuation is interpolated in the 13/33-34/33/20 year series and occurred in Nov 2021. 11-14 % Covid -related GDP deficit spending and subsequent 6-8% GDP deficit spending (the peacetime average before 2009 is 3%) and chip/AI/data center mania private spending in 2025 and 2026, accounting for 40-90% of US GDP growth, extended the 3rd fractal 90 year cycle to the end of the 1982 13/33 year cycle.
The 13 year 1st Fractal and 33-34 year 2nd Fractal of the 1982 13/33-34/33/20 year 4-phase fractal series:
The analogous Buffet Indicator Index:
Comparisons of 1928 to 1929 with 2025 to 2027: expansion of private debt; national deficit to GDP ratios, and SPX and DJIA equity blow-off
valuation gains:
1928 to 1929
From the end of 1927 to 1929 US non-mortgage private consumer credit expanded by 30% from 5.7 to 7.6 billion dollars. Most automobiles, appliances, and radios were purchased on installment plans with private credit. GDP rose 8.4% or 95.5 billion to 104.6 in those two years or 4.2% per year. The non-mortgage private consumer credit expansion accounted for 25% of the increase of the GDP in 1928 and 1929. US governmental debt was 18.5 billion in 1927 and dropped to 16.9 billion in 1929, the latter 14.8% of GDP. As consumer credit and private debt rapidly expanded by 30% during 1928 and 1929, DJIA valuation in the interval between its 20 Feb 1928 nadir valuation and its 3 Sept 1929 peak valuationthe , witnessed an increase of 87.45% from 203.35 to 381.17.
2025 to 2026
Unlike the 1928 to 1929 period where the US national debt decreased by 9%, the national debt increased from 34.1 trillion to 40 trillion from the beginning of 2025 to Aug 2026 and is expected to be 41.5 trillion by Dec 2026, a 21.7% increase in 2 years and 10.85% increase on annual average. GDP in that same time span rose from 29.30 trillion to an expected 31.48 trillion or 2.18 trillion by 2026 year’s end: or nominally in the two year span by 7.4% or 3.7% annually. Private credit expansion in AI/hardware/software/data centers has accounted for an estimated 40-90% of the increase in the 2.18 trillion increase in GDP. Current federal governmental debt to GDP stands at 123% as opposed to 14.8% in 1929.
Following the executive order announcement of tariffs, later deemed to be unconstitutional, the DJIA and SPX eventually reached nadirs on 7 April 2025 at 37,965.60 and 5062.25, respectively. After the administration’s non-congressionally approved initiation of the Iran war on 28 February 2026 and sharp oil price increases, the DJIA and SPX declined to a higher nadir low on 30 March 2026. With a temporary cessation of military activities the DJIA reached a peak valuation on 5 August 2026 at 54744.33 and the SPX on 13-14 Aug 2026 near 7800 representing a 35% increase and a 30.6% increase, respectively. The NASDAQ containing AI stocks had a 45.4 % gain from its 7 April 2026 intraday low of 14849.96 to its 1 June 2026 intraday high at 27190.21. Percentage-wise the terminal 7 April 2025 to 2026 equity blow-off gains were less than 43% of the terminal 20 Feb 1928 to 1929 gains. The great percentage difference between peak SPX valuations 3 Sept 1929 and 13 August 2026 may have been the ongoing man-made diesel, oil, natural gas, helium, sulfuric acid, copper global supply shock shortages which in themselves will ultimately have an estimated 10% negative effect on global GDP. The Ongoing shortages will have a profound synergistic effect on the natural over-investment fractal decay cycle.
Which political party will be blamed for the Monday 2 November initial Crash Nadir?
It is the opinion of this economic fractalist that without presidential involvement, the final peak valuations for the SPX/DJIA would have been higher, but that the timing of the Monday 2 Nov 2026 crash nadir would have been the same. The superimposed synergistic effect of the Iranian oil, helium, fertilizer,et. al. global supply shocks (and the US mutable, unpredictable trade policies) – on the natural fractal peak and decay pattern of terminal private funding mania, asset overinvestment, over production and overvaluation – will result in an initial lower 2 November 2026 global equity composite crash nadir valuation.
