Daily Update
19 October 06
A Final Posting
Saturation Macroeconomics and Saturation Curve Fractal Analysis- A Real Science?
November 24 2006 - Day 398 of a 159/398/398 -
ideal X/2.5X/2.5X Maxium Growth Fractal.....
Perhaps GM points the way afterall; as GM goes, so goes ....
November 24, 2006 is day 58 of a 29/73/58 X/2.5X/2X GM Growth Fractal.
From AdamSmithhee:August 24, 2005
Brad and Angelina Love Triangle Shocker
Brad Pitt, former faithless husband of Jennifer Aniston, may be
getting a taste of his own medicine. It used to be that Brad, himself
a tireless campaigner for development, would cozy up with Angelina
during breaks on her tours of Africa. But now she's traveling around
the continent with a new boy-toy, Jeff Sachs. Not to be outdone, the
anti-Sachs Bill Easterly has been appearing on MTV wearing a cool
black t-shirt, perhaps hoping he'll get picked up by Jessica Simpson,
"GOP Babe of the Week" and noted aid skeptic. A surprising
number of
development economists (i.e., more than zero) do turn out to be
stylish lotharios. Nonetheless, all the "Elvis of Economics" got
to
travel with was a grizzled Irishman.
August 24, 2005 in People | Permalink
Comments
Limited
I am riding on a limited express, one of the crack trains
of the nation.
Hurtling across the prairie into blue haze and dark air
go fifteen all-steel coaches holding a thousand people.
(All the coaches shall be scrap and rust and all the men
and women laughing in the diners and sleepers shall
pass to ashes.)
I ask a man in the smoker where he is going and he
answers: "Omaha."
Kindly visit the Economic Fractalist http://www.economicfractalist
Posted by: gary lammert | August 24, 2005 at 09:59 AM
The above comment probably deserves to be nixed as spam, but for those
who like their nutty theories dressed up in pseudo-scientific
gobbledygook, the linked site is almost as good as anything by Laffer:
"This site has been constructed because of the expected inevitability
of a major sudden phase transition to occur at the conclusion of a
grand 140 plus-year second fractal cycle starting in 1858. For the
masses this phase transition will occur both very unexpectedly and
very suddenly. Approaching the global macro economy from such a causal
and fractal Weltanschauung may help those considering further debt
obligation and those in position of formulating future interest rate
and monetary policy."
Posted by: Adamsmithee | August 24, 2005 at 11:53 AM
More nutty-theoried pseudo-scientific gobbledygook......
From The Economic Fractalist.. 25 August 2005 posting...
Saturation Curve Fractal Analysis - A Real Science?
In order to qualify as a true science, the subject entity must be
testable by scientific method and have underlying laws that operate in
the real physical environment. These laws must be repetitively
provable and have reasonable predictability for different
applications. Scientific testing in college biology, chemistry, and
physics laboratories usually results in
experimental values that roughly support the underlying mathematical
equations and theoretical constructs. If indeed complex economic
systems travel by the simple quantum laws that observational fractal
analysis suggests, a similar validity should be testable and provable,
retrospectively and prospectively, in the great laboratory of readily
obtainable asset valuation saturation curves.
Valuation fractals represent a composite integration of primarily six
elements in the complex economic system: cash and savings; total
private, corporation and governmental debt load; ongoing wages;
assets; lending
practices; and prevailing interest rates. Each of these six broad
parameters has its own complex internal dynamics and summation
characteristics. In a very mechanistic fashion, following simple
near-quantum and near-quantum
related Fibonacci numbers, valuation fractals 'grow' to buying
saturation levels and thereafter 'decay' to lower selling saturation
levels. The fundamental point to this new potential economic science
is that the daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly valuation fractals
represent the sum total integration of those six elements and their
complex interactive relationships. Pour into the economic vat: cash
for daily transactions, savings available for money to be borrowed at
given interest rates using
prevailing lending practices for both major purchases and minor credit
card purchases, balanced by on-going wages and debt servicing
obligations, balanced by relative valuation of assets and their
relative state of consumption, mix it up on a daily, weekly, etc.
basis - and - from the vat flows forth the daily, weekly, etc.
summation saturation curves dancing to a
rather precise near quantum fractal tune. While lower order time unit
fractals such as minutes and hours represent trading valuation
saturation points, intermediate fractals represent the larger picture
of on going velocity of money growth percolating through the system.
The higher order or 4-yearly, 17-18 yearly and 70 year fractals
represent both business cycle
and asset and debt saturation levels at the basic consumer level.
There are three sequential identified ideal growth fractals followed
by a decay fractal. The near quantum number time units for the three
cycles are x, 2-2.5x and 2x, respectively. A nonlinear devaluation
typically characterizes the second growth fractal somewhere between
the 2x and 2.5x
time period. The third growth fractal which ideally is 2x in length
can have an extension to 2.5x. This extension of the third growth
fractal has characterized both the current US equity and heavily
invested commodity areas, particularly oil and gold, for the entire
128 week duration of the March 2000 secondary growth period.
Just as the complex system is an integrative process, valuation
fractals which exactly represent them are likewise composite
integrations with nonlinear capacitor like decay devaluations.
Fractals incorporate the terminal portion of the preceding decay
fractal into the beginning of the
follow-on growth fractal. An elegant pristine example of this rolling
integration was the 40/100/100 day cycle exactly x/2.5x/2.5x that
resulted in the March 2005 top(((an errror of statement -the January 05
top))) for the DJIA. The first two fractals were 'declining' growth
fractals with a very characteristic nonlinear break at the end of the
second fractal in August 2004. That second fractal was likewise
elegant in its evolution in that it was composed of a 29/72 day x/2.5x
sub fractal sequence. The probability that these precise sequences are
random numerical sequential events approaches zero and elevates
fractal analysis, reciprocally, to a high probability real science
descriptive of the comple macro economy.
The subsequent growth fractals dating from August 2004 likewise have
followed the same very precise fractal growth evolution with a 52/130
(x/2.5x) day first and second fractal growth sequence with the typical
nonlinear drop between 2x and 2.5x of the second fractal. Anyone can
verify this pattern using any of the major US or European indices. The
third
fractal US equity sequence has been a 12/30-31/28 day sequence,
approaching the extended ideal form of x/2.5x/2.5x growth pattern. The
major European indices ,e.g., the FTSE, DAX, and CAC have a slightly
different mix of the
six aforementioned underlying elements and have extended their growth
- but are still confined within the 52/130/104 theoretical maximum and
the theoretical Fibonacci maximum of 52/130/(1.62 X 52 = 84-85)days.
These recurrent numerically ideal patterns since August 2004 once
again lend substantial credibility to the notion that the complex
macroeconomy operates according to some relatively precise laws of
fractal
design.
What are the rate limiting factors that result in growth saturation
points or asymptotes, decay selling saturation points or asymptotes,
and the general nature of fractal patterning? Each of the six
controlling parameters- assets, ongoing wages, lending practices,
prevailing interest rates, debt load, and cash and savings -
contribute to the saturation areas.
Some are more important than others in determining cycle lengths and
saturation points.
Assets have two important elements: relative valuations and saturation
ownership. If the valuation becomes too high or too overly consumed,
demand will decease. The timing for this decrease is exactly
represented by an asymptotic valuation saturation level or a single
high valuation point
followed by lower valuations. The valuation curves provide precise
'barometric' information on instantaneous demand relative to valuation
level and relative to the consumption level. Some assets such as gas
and oil must be purchased to maintain livelihood. As global
consumption for the this
finite resource increases, resulting price increases squeeze the null
saving US consumer, far too many living from paycheck to paycheck, to
the financial breakpoint. Unnecessarily expensive US healthcare, 25
percent of the value of which goes to third party insurers and the
non-value added bill
collection system, can be considered yet another consumable asset,
that, like 'uninsured equivalent' gasoline prices, is driving many to
insolvency.
Ongoing wages and just as important the jobs that support those wages
are perhaps the most important rate limiting factor in determining
valuation saturation points. In the US jobs sphere, high paying
manufacturing jobs with the exception of the housing industry have
been significantly
outsourced. As the housing bubble crests, overcapacity will become
evident and high paying home construction jobs will contract. A
considerable subset of jobs in America have questionable value-added
real economic worth and
will be lightened during consumer retrenchment. It is easy to image
using the 1930's as a template of a positive feedback contracting
system, whereby decreased ,e.g., construction jobs leads to decreased
consumer spending which
leads to further job contraction in other nonessential service areas
which leads to further spending contraction and so forth.
Lending practices and prevailing interesting rates, the latter a
Federal Reserve controlled parameter, work in synergy to foster money
creation and asset inflation. Fractional reserve lending practices
amplify the bank and money market savings used as a reserve base for
lending. Extremely low interest rates, i.e., a Fed fund rate of 1
percent coupled with a lending practice of LIBOR type loans, no money
down and interest only payments
creates the interesting situation in which the interest cost of money
is far below the real asset inflation rate. Not to borrow is to lose
money that would be made with the expected inflation. Conversely,
saving money under these interest rate and lending practice guidelines
results in loss of purchasing power. Credit card interest rates
reflect the needed higher
interest rates to overcome the default rate. The last year of higher
Fed Fund interest rates have resulted in both increased mortgage
payments and decreased bank profitability secondary to the contracting
spread of long term verses short term interest rates.
Ongoing debt load and the requirement to service that debt diminishes
cash available for asset consumption and investment. Percentage wise
the total debt load relative to wages and GDP has had relatively small
incremental
increases - a fact which has mistakenly reassured many linear thinking
economists. Debt load becomes very important and a primary factor in
the fractal decay process, where assets are liquated in an attempt to
pay down debt. Because debt is in a major way based on the value of
the asset, debt
load becomes relatively greater with ongoing declining asset values.
This process also represent a positive feedback system and is self
perpetuating. It results in a mechanistic devaluation and deflationary
process, lowering the value of nearly all non cash or non-cash
equivalent assets.
Cash is the money that is represented by greenbacks in circulation and
greenback equivalent readily convertible debt instruments such as
treasuries, notes, bonds, bank deposits, and money market funds. In
short cash represents the dollars in circulation and savings. The
savings rate,
which the Federal Reserve has bemoaned to be dangerously low and was
reported to be zero in July, reflects the competition of the the
various Investment areas. With interest rates below the real(which
includes housing) asset inflation rates, deposited money in saving
instruments loses its purchasing power value each week that it is
malinvested in the bank or
interest bearing cash equivalent instruments. Deposited money in
saving instruments has been generally a bad investment in the last few
years.
During the decay fractal process, this scenario will be reversed with
money from ongoing asset liquidation flowing into cash and cash
equivalents, whose purchase power value will increase relation to
asset devaluation.
These are the lumped six broad elements that are dynamically
interacting with each other to create the summation valuation points,
curves, and saturation asymptotes. The evolving integrative fractals
that appear to so well describe the real instantaneous state, the
trending state, the
saturation areas, and importantly predict with relative exactness the
expected nonlinearities of the complex macro economic system, have the
fundamental characteristics of a real science.
Gary Lammert http://www.economicfractalist
Posted by: gary lammert | August 27, 2005 at 05:15 AM
Gary Lammert
This pages was last modified on 10/19/2006